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Writer's picturebartleby
Oct 30, 2020

The Flappr War Room's Final Election Predictions

Who doesn't love a good prediction?

As election day looms, we thought it would be appropriate to lock in guesses to how we think Tuesday will unfold. Obviously, this being a right of center blog, run by people who identify as right of center, you're going to be able to guess who many of us think is going to win Tuesday's vote.


We obviously don't REALLLLY know what is going to happen on Tuesday. We're just normal, country-loving Americans. None of us are employed by any political campaign or party. We've all seen the same polls that you have, we all share some level of doubt - but most of us still cannot square up the polling data with what our eyes and our intuition tells us.


You see Trump fitting in as many rallies as he can, rushing from state to state and then back again. You see Biden doing as few rallies as possible and those rallies are usually sparsely attended and pathetic to watch. It feels like that SHOULD mean something, but maybe it doesn't.


We've all bore witness to the violence, looting, burning and rioting that engulfed major American cities this summer. We've seen businesses and communities suffer as a result of "peaceful protests" led by. . . well, far-left activists (Democrats). It feels like that SHOULD mean something, but maybe it doesn't.


We've all witnessed Joe Biden avoid answering questions, have moments where he can't remember where he is, why he's there and what office he's trying to win. We've seen Joe call lids before 10 am more often than not and avoid talking to the people. It feels like that SHOULD mean something, but maybe it doesn't.


The good news is that we're very close to finding out who will be the President of the United States for the next four years (or less if Biden wins). We won't have to guess any longer how this will shake out. There will be a winner and we can all begin to cope, no matter the outcome.


So without further ado, here is how the Flappr contributors see Tuesday shaking out, using maps generated on 270towin.com. It should be fun to see who is right and who is wrong and how right or how wrong we all were.


Enjoy, go vote if you haven't already and God Bless America.


 
 

Soylord9001 (@Soylent_Lament)



1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Pennsylvania 2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Vermont 3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: California 4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Michigan

5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: Florida 6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: ????


 

KYCocaineBear (@KyCocaineBear)




1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): No response. 2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Minnesota. 3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: No response. 4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Florida, Georgia, and Texas are all safe red.

5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: If you ignore mail in voting and just look at in-person voting numbers Dade County is red. That's pretty spicy. 6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: No response.



 

Mommypenny (@mommypenny1971)



1) which state least confident in? actually two, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I live on the border and honestly based on the people I've met lately, its about a 50/50 split. That being said I am hopeful there are enough people who will do the right thing.


2) which battleground states are a lock? I think all states are battleground states ultimately, but Florida is a lock and Texas is a lock in my opinion. I don't want to put all my eggs in the basket of "the silent majority" but I do think that this election isn't going down the way the "blue Crew" thinks it is.


3) which state will shock? this time around I think Michigan. they are just weird, I think its going red because their governor is a douche nozzle, but I cant swear to it.


4) what race will shock people? The human race.


5) what race will disappoint? again the Humans.


 

Pubes (@smubpublius)


1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): New Mexico. 2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): New Hampshire. 3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: Virginia. 4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Ohio.

5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: Minnesota. 6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: Cory Gardner holding his seat.


 


This is very likely the only map you will see in Flappr’s official predictions that shows Joe Biden winning. As the resident (election) doomer and contrarian it is only fitting. I am actually quite optimistic and pleasant about other things! To me, this election looks a lot more like 2012 than 2004.


Let me explain. In 2004, John Kerry was a dud just like Joe Biden and GWB expanded his coalition picking up 3 million more net votes and an additional state in the electoral college. Easy enough to see this comparison but I think 2012 is more accurate. In 2012, Obama was not a particularly popular president, he lost a ton of ground in the popular vote, and two closely contested states from 2008 (IN and NC) flipped back red. He was plagued by a terrible economic recovery from the Great Recession and a fairly unpopular agenda. Trump is similar in this regard as he is just about equally as unpopular as Obama (probably slightly more-so) and is plagued by the pandemic and millions of people being out of work. Those may not be his fault but the incumbent bears the burden.


Obama had such a huge head start with his 2008 landslide that he was able to weather the storm of losing millions of votes and multiple states and still win in 2012. Trump, given his narrow margin in many key states in 2016, has no such luxury. Though I am certainly hoping he channels that Trumpy magic and shocks the world yet again.


1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): North Carolina.


2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Pennsylvania


3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: Wisconsin.


4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Florida.


5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: My map doesn’t really lend itself to having a “big upset” but I suppose I could see Nevada going to Trump.


6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: John James wins Michigan seat even with Trump losing at top of the ticket.

 


1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Michigan.


2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Minnesota.


3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: New Mexico.


4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Florida.


5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: Pennsylvania.


6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: Susan Collins winning.


 


1) The State that I'm not confident Trump will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Pennsylvania, mainly because John Roberts sided with the Liberal wing of SCOTUS and Pennsylvania is now allowed to count absentee ballots received up to three days after election day (so long as they are postmarked BY election day). This feels like an opportunity for much tomfuckery by Democrats. 2) The State that I'm not confident Biden will win (but I picked him to win it anyway): Nevada, feels like Nevada could be a sleeper win for Trump - the service worker unions there are famous for registering people and getting them out to vote. The Coronavirus has, if you believe reports, really made it difficult for the unions to do their registration drives because the unions cannot set up sign up booths. 3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: New Hampshire. I know nothing about New Hampshire, but it feels like all those New England states remain perpetually blue. 4) There is no way Biden wins this battleground state: Texas - that's a pipe dream. It may happen eventually, it may happen in 2024, it's not happening in 2020.

5) I think the biggest upset state for President will be: I think it will be Pennsylvania. IF Trump wins Biden's nominal home state, he wins the presidency. I cannot see him winning Pennsylvania and losing the election. 6) I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: John James beats Jerry Peters.


 

Burnout (@burnout1850)



1 and 2: I’m not confident Trump/Biden will win, but I picked him to win it anyway: This feels like this is supposed to be our swing states, so I lumped them together. Truth be told, if you said “no toss-ups,” I’d have to break all three (AZ, MN, WI) for Trump.  Wisconsin feels like the most secure for Trump to me. There was talk around the Flappr Editorial Board that Wisconsin might “guilt vote” because they don’t want to be seen as Trump Country. I think that element is real, but I also think it already played out in the midterms. Wisconsin went full cobalt in the 2018 elections and they’ve pretty much suffered ever since. The kids aren’t in Madison to drive up the college idiot vote, and I can’t see southern Wisconsin outside of Milwaukee voting against its own interest, re: Kenosha.  If I had to break one for Biden, I’d say Minnesota, but that’s mostly history and the fact that I don’t think the Iron Range is going to have the population to help overcome the Minneapolis juggernaut. You’d think Minnesota would flip red, but these are the same people who elected Al Franken, so color me less than optimistic.  3) There is no way Trump wins this battleground state: It’s suddenly become trendy to put New Mexico in play for Republicans, and truth be told I get why it’s tempting, because everything in New Mexico seems like it should line up for the modern Republican party.  It has a strong libertarian streak, and has grown exponentially poorer compared to the rest of the nation under majority Democrat rule.  It’s big on gun rights, and their residents take genuine pride in how many of them are legal immigrants.  The problem? There’s a Udall on the ballot, and that crime family is going to lock up a strong Democrat turn in early.  4: There’s no way Biden wins this battleground state: To harken back to my childhood: Pennsylvania is definitely a late stage video game boss for both political parties. 

It has Democrat Stronghold Philadelphia in the east, and Union Labor Hub Pittsburgh in the west, combined with Ivy League elitism and plenty of D.C. and New York City money floating around.  But it also experienced an economic revitalization under Trump with expansion of fracking, has been the site of some grotesque BLM riots, and has a Democrat governor who has made repeatedly unpopular decisions during the Rona.  Part of every election is figuring out which states stand to gain or lose *the most* and possibly only Texas stands to lose more under a Biden administration. You can guilt someone into something they don’t want to do up to a point, but I just don’t see Pennsylvania choosing to commit suicide.  5: I think the biggest upset State for President will be: This is so wild I don’t even have it on my map, but I could almost see Trump winning Oregon. Hear me out: The Pacific Northwest is actually blood red outside of the Willamette Valley and the greater Seattle area. Seattle is probably too big for the Republican brand to overcome, but Portland might not be.  Nobody has suffered worse in 2020 than the poor citizens of Oregon.  No state would be better suited to have reluctant-to-admit-it new Republican voters, given Antifa’s presence and Ted Wheeler’s willingness to kneel before them. I wouldn’t wager the farm on Beaver Country, but I’d be willing to make a fun side bet.  6: I think the biggest shocker among the Senate races will be: We keep both Georgia senate seats. I get that Doug Collins is a putz for continuing to run against Loeffler, but the logistics of the math don’t add up.  Collins can pretty much only pull votes from Loeffler, and vice versa, and yet even bad polls still put the race close. Given the BLM/Democrat destruction in Atlanta, widely admitted increases in the black community for Republican candidates, and the fact that the split doesn’t seem to have significantly helped Democrats, I think that ends up breaking for the good guys.  The other seat is more straightforward. Ossoff wasn’t even able to win a House seat in what should have been a favorable congressional district. The idea that he’s going to defeat Perdue is farcical.


 

This is my map. There are many like it but this one is mine. Michigan has me slightly concerned because that woman from Michigan has proven she doesn't care about the law and will try to cheat. New Mexico could go red as well but I cannot bring myself to change it. As for the Senate GOP holds all, even Susan Collins and Corey Gardner, plus pick up Alabama and Michigan. Not that any of this matters because things are only going to get more divisive. Civilization was a mistake.


Editor's Note: Nero refused to answer the questions, because Civilization was a mistake.


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